It’s a matter of life and death.

What if you could predict which patient would code, and when? What would you do with that knowledge?

Losing their mother to an unnoticed nexus of clinical warning signs prompted two brothers to develop a better way.

Michael and Steven Rothman, an engineer and a statistician, designed the Rothman Index to prevent loss of life. They found a way to increase visibility into the multiple, often nuanced, indicators for a patient whose condition is deteriorating.

The Rothman Index uses real-time Epic data to quantify and display a patient’s illness severity and risk of death. This predictive analytics tool provides information such as 24-hour mortality risk, discharge disposition, 30-day readmission risk and ICU mortality risk.

Handwriting on the wall.

We’ve installed wall monitors displaying compiled information for individual patients, using 26 clinical data points to detect patient deterioration ― early in the disease process, when we can quickly intervene to save a life.

“We can change our mindset,” said Dr. Nicholas Desai, chief medical information officer. “Instead of reacting to a critical situation, we can proactively engage to prevent a situation from becoming critical.”

This early warning patient monitoring system reports on the various clinical indices, crunching the numbers into a total score. Displaying patient deterioration risk status makes it easy for providers and nurses to see the Rothman Index score for a particular patient.

“Our patient care becomes more personalized when we can leverage analytics to see a patient’s precise condition,” Desai said.

The intersection of math and medicine.

The Rothman Index calculates a range of physiologic measures, including nursing assessments, labs and vital signs.

The model transforms each piece of medical information into a formula displaying a patient’s condition, continuously. It’s integrated into Epic and computed in real time across all conditions, diseases and care settings.

This score translates directly into decreased mortality rates, ICU admissions, lengths of stay and readmission rates. It provides a continuous measure of patient acuity across all diseases and conditions.

Removing silos of information. Compiling that information into a Rothman Index score. Saving lives.